What the Trade War Means for Southern California Real Estate Right Now

Where Rates Stand Today

As of this week, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is sitting around 6.22% to 6.37% depending on your lender and loan profile. That's up slightly from where it was earlier in the spring, when rates briefly dipped below 6% in March before geopolitical uncertainty pushed them back up.

The 15-year fixed is around 5.65%, and VA loans are coming in even lower — closer to 5.76% on a 30-year. For buyers in Orange County, that's still workable. It's not the 3% era, but it's also not 8%. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects rates hovering around 6.30% through most of 2026, with Fannie Mae forecasting a slight dip toward 6% by year end. If that happens, expect a wave of pent-up buyers to come off the sidelines fast.

The Trade War and What It's Actually Doing to Housing

Here's what most people aren't connecting: the trade war isn't just a stock market story. It's a construction cost story — and that directly hits you as a buyer or seller in Southern California.

The blanket 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico — in place since early 2025 — have driven up the cost of lumber, steel, and building materials. Realtor.com data shows a 7.9% year-over-year drop in new homes completed over that period. Less new supply in a market that was already starved for inventory means existing homes hold their value, and sellers keep the upper hand.

At the same time, broader market volatility from the trade war has kept the Fed cautious. That caution is part of why mortgage rates haven't dropped as fast as many expected. When global markets are shaky, investors flock to U.S. Treasuries, which actually pushes bond yields down — and mortgage rates tend to follow. But ongoing uncertainty keeps that dynamic unpredictable week to week.

What This Means Specifically for Orange County

Southern California — and Orange County in particular — is insulated from some of this in ways that other markets aren't. Why? Because we're not a new construction market. Dana Point, Newport Beach, San Clemente, Huntington Beach, Irvine — these coastal and near-coastal communities are built out. The majority of what trades hands here is resale. So while tariffs hammer builders trying to put up new subdivisions in the Inland Empire or out in the desert, our market is driven by existing homeowners deciding whether to move.

And those homeowners? Most of them are locked into 3% rates from 2020 and 2021. That rate lock effect is real — they're not selling unless they have to or unless life calls for it: divorce, death, job change, upsizing, downsizing. That keeps inventory tight, which keeps prices supported even when buyer demand softens.

So Should You Buy, Sell, or Wait?

My take: if you're a buyer who has been waiting for rates to drop to 5%, you may be waiting a long time — and overpaying for it in the meantime. Home prices in coastal Orange County have not dropped. The buyers who jumped in at 6.5% last year are sitting on equity. The ones who waited are still waiting, and the homes they wanted are now priced higher.

If you're a seller, the window is real but not infinite. Inventory across Southern California is at 37,000+ active listings right now — up 1% week over week. It's not a flood, but it's moving. Price your home right, present it well, and the buyers are there. Price it emotionally and you'll sit.

The world is noisy right now. Trade wars, overseas conflicts, inflation uncertainty — none of that changes the fundamental reality of Southern California real estate: there's not enough of it, and people want to live here. That hasn't changed in 40 years, and it's not changing now.

Questions about what your home is worth right now, or what you can realistically buy in this market? Reach out directly. I work in this market every day — Dana Point, Newport Beach, San Clemente, Huntington Beach, Irvine, and everywhere in between. Let's cut through the noise and get you a real answer.